BAYESIAN PREDICTION FOR THE WINDS OF WINTER
Abstract. Predictions are made for the number of chapters told from the point of view of each character
in the next two novels in George R. R. Martin’s A Song of Ice and Fire series by fitting a random effects
model to a matrix of point-of-view chapters in the earlier novels using Bayesian methods. SPOILER
WARNING: readers who have not read all five existing novels in the series should not read
further, as major plot points will be spoiled, starting with Table 1.
"No, I’m Gilly. With a guh in fron’."